Almost two decades ago, Serbia unilaterally declared military neutrality. However, military neutrality does not mean political neutrality, even though these two terms are often conflated in public discourse—sometimes out of ignorance, and sometimes deliberately. Serbia does not have the luxury of sitting on two chairs. Small states, especially those at the crossroads of major geopolitical interests, do not enjoy the privilege of being politically neutral. They either choose their allies themselves, or others will choose on their behalf. Geography, historical experience, economic interests, and political logic clearly dictate the only possible path—deeper integration into European and Euro-Atlantic structures.
For decades, Serbia has wavered. Declaratively, it moves toward the EU, but in practice it remains deeply tied to Russia and increasingly dependent on China. The result is that our foreign policy course does not serve the interests of Serbia, but the interests of Moscow and Beijing. Russia benefits from permanent instability in the Balkans—by doing so, it threatens Europe with conflict on its own soil and maintains leverage. China, on the other hand, acts more quietly and insidiously, building economic arrangements that gradually transform entire societies into dependents of its model.
If we look at the countries of the former Eastern Bloc, it is clear that none of them regret choosing membership in the EU and NATO. On the contrary—economic growth, stability, and security have become their standard. Serbia, however, instead of using its geographic position and resources, is sinking ever deeper into dependence not only on Russia’s malign influence, but also on China’s increasingly perfidious penetration.
China does not build its global expansion on freedom and the advancement of its citizens, but on their exploitation. Its society is an example of how the Party subordinates everything—from human rights to the economy—to a single goal: the preservation of its monopoly on power. While the West, with all its flaws, offers a model of freedom, protection of workers, and quality of life, China offers discipline, censorship, and dependence. The parallel is not difficult to draw—an employee in an American or German company and an employee in a Chinese factory do not live in the same world. The difference is not only in wages, but in freedom and dignity.
It is therefore illusory to claim that Serbia can take “the best of both worlds.” That is simply not possible. Investors from the East are welcome, but only under the rules and standards of the West. Serbia must choose values, not just projects.
The recent meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin sparked a storm of reactions around the world. Some view it as an attempt to stop the war in Ukraine, others as the opening of a “new order.” But the essence is deeper: the United States, under Trump’s leadership, clearly recognizes that the greatest long-term threat is not Russia, but China.
All indicators suggest that Beijing is rapidly preparing the ground for a serious confrontation. The introduction of U.S. tariffs, bans on the export of advanced semiconductors, the withdrawal of capital and investments from China, massive Chinese investments in military technology and artificial intelligence—all point to China’s preparation for a military challenge. The first stop would almost certainly be Taiwan.
In this calculus, Russia is in fact a secondary player—exhausted by war, but useful to China as an ally and a destabilizing factor in Europe. That is why Trump’s talks with Putin are not only about the war in Ukraine, but also part of a broader strategy: to prevent Moscow from becoming a complete satellite of Beijing.
In a world that is rapidly polarizing and entering a new era of conflict, Serbia cannot afford the luxury of “balancing.” Neutrality becomes an empty phrase.
Serbia’s natural allies are the United States and the European Union. They are not perfect—but the alternative is an illusion. Between freedom and dictatorship, stability and blackmail, prosperity and stagnation—the choice is not difficult.
Serbia belongs to the West. The sooner we recognize this and make a clear commitment, the sooner we will secure a stable, modern, and prosperous Serbia.
