A Brief Comparative Analysis of Trump’s Statehood Day Messages – the importance of soft power and convergence toward the Greek standard of commemoration
Respect. Pride. Recognition of both. These listed characteristics are defining features of foreign policy conduct that we expect from the other side in coexistence within the international arena. These are the qualities that Serbian diplomacy has traditionally valued and appreciated when recognized and acknowledged by other actors.
Respect and pride represent essential preconditions for any form of continuous dialogue and recognition of the role of a partner/friend within the foreign policy spectrum with the U.S. President, especially in the case of Donald Trump, who tends toward a pragmatic orientation.
Following Trump’s victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential elections, it was expected that the traditional characteristics of Serbian diplomacy would align with his pragmatic outlook, particularly due to the exceptionally strong historical moments within the established alliance, friendship, and natural closeness of the two nations.
Through a brief comparative analysis of Trump’s congratulatory messages, we can observe important signals and central points in the bilateral relations between his administration and our country over the years. A broader comparative analysis would include the examination of multiple external factors, longer time periods, and especially the period from 2021 to the end of 2024 due to its current legacy.
The purpose of this brief analysis is to examine the signals in Trump’s Statehood Day messages to Serbia, how they were and whether they were reflected in bilateral relations, and what conclusions and assumptions should be particularly considered in 2026 and the years ahead.
In his first Statehood Day message as U.S. President, Trump addressed then-President of Serbia, Tomislav Nikolić, with the following words: “On behalf of the American people, please accept my sincere congratulations on the occasion of Serbia’s National Day, February 15. I look forward to deepening the important partnership between our two countries and continuing our joint efforts to ensure that both our peoples achieve a brighter, more prosperous future marked by peace, prosperity, and good neighborly relations.”
The 2017 message had an evident goal—to lay the foundation for potential cooperation. The message did not contain specific political motives, nor a specific form of communication. Brief and diplomatic, it was up to Trump to define his views and political motives toward Serbia in the years to come.
Before Trump’s second message, bilateral visits between Serbian and U.S. officials took place: On February 10, 2017 (prior to the message), Director for South and Central European Affairs in the U.S. State Department Matthew Palmer, in the presence of U.S. Ambassador to Serbia Kyle Scott, held a meeting with Aleksandar Vučić (then Prime Minister of Serbia) in Belgrade.
Emphasis was placed on U.S. support for Serbia’s EU membership, the importance of preserving regional peace and stability, economic development with fewer trade barriers, and perhaps most importantly, recognition of the solid foundations of friendship between Serbia and the United States and the desire to strengthen them.
On July 18, 2017, now President of Serbia Aleksandar Vučić met with U.S. Vice President Mike Pence in Washington. The growth of trade and American investments as an important political driver of improved relations, regional stability, and the issue of frozen conflicts in the region were key points of discussion. Serbia’s EU path was once again emphasized as having U.S. support, as well as the mission of preserving territorial integrity. During this meeting, the President referred to good relations with Russia, but also with all other countries. At the same time, the President used the opportunity to invite Pence and Trump to visit Serbia. The visit to Washington was also accompanied by meetings with members of the U.S. House of Representatives and the Senate.
On September 20, 2017, Vučić had the opportunity to repeat the invitation to Trump to visit Serbia, this time in person, during a reception for participants of the UN General Assembly hosted by the U.S. President. Vučić also stated that Trump had accepted the invitation. The day before that meeting, the President of Serbia emphasized the importance of Trump’s speech at the UN, which he said would be the subject of weeks-long analysis for the purpose of strategic positioning of the country in the future.
Trump’s 2018 message stated: “On behalf of the American people, please accept my congratulations on the occasion of Statehood Day. Serbia has long been an important partner of the United States. This year we mark the centennial since President Woodrow Wilson raised the Serbian flag at the White House, which is a good opportunity to recall our long-standing and fruitful bilateral relations.”
President Trump simultaneously invited the President of Serbia to continue working together on strengthening regional stability and deepening relations between the two countries, with the aim of achieving, as he stated, shared progress.
In the text of the message, we notice a specific way of addressing the Republic of Serbia that we did not have the opportunity to see in the first one. Highlighting the Serbian flag at the White House and long-standing fruitful relations with Serbia is an example of the alignment of respect and pride in foreign policy communication by Trump toward Serbia. Regional stability and the mention of deepening relations are also important signals.
On February 10, 2018 (prior to the message), then Minister of Foreign Affairs Ivica Dačić met with U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in Washington, with whom he emphasized the importance of Woodrow Wilson’s role in Serbian-American relations, the Serbian-American alliance, and the importance of ensuring lasting peace in Kosovo and Metohija. Dačić also pointed out that the Trump administration had more understanding on this issue than previous ones.
On March 14, 2018, at a meeting with U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Wess Mitchell in Belgrade, President Vučić emphasized the importance of respecting the Brussels Agreement and resolving the Kosovo issue through compromise, despite differing positions between the U.S. and Serbia on that issue. Mitchell called for the fulfillment of obligations by all actors.
During her visit to Washington in July 2018, then Prime Minister Ana Brnabić met with members of the Serbian Caucus in the U.S. Congress, the U.S. Commission for the First World War, as well as representatives of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Topics highlighted included further economic cooperation, support for EU integration as a key foreign policy goal of Serbia, and the overall improvement of Serbian-American relations. In cooperation with the Serbian Caucus in Congress, a ceremony marking 100 years since the raising of the Serbian flag at the White House was held, during which the Prime Minister addressed attendees alongside Serbia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs.
During this visit, gratitude was also expressed for the inclusion of the Serbian military in peacekeeping missions, which was preceded by a joint exercise of NATO members and Serbia at Base South near Bujanovac in June of the same year, called Platinum Wolf 2018. Soon after, another joint NATO–Serbian Armed Forces exercise followed in Mladenovac from October 8–11, called Serbia 2018. The exercise was jointly opened by the President of Serbia and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who was on an official visit to Serbia. During the year, the Serbian Armed Forces were also actively involved in other NATO exercises, making 2018 particularly important in relations between Serbia and the NATO alliance.
Trump’s 2019 message read: “Dear Mr. President, On behalf of the American people, it is my pleasure to send sincere congratulations on the occasion of Serbia’s Statehood Day. This year, from the celebration of the hundredth anniversary since the Serbian flag flew over the White House, we turn to ensuring that the next century of our partnership is similarly dedicated to peace, prosperity and freedom.
The United States remains unwavering in its support for your commitment to deepening regional cooperation, and especially your commitment to normalizing relations with Kosovo. While it is up to the parties to reach an agreement that both can support, we believe that mutual recognition should be a central element of a lasting normalization of relations. Such a historic agreement, with mutual recognition at its core, would build the way for Serbia’s European integration goals and economic growth.”
The 2019 message contained elements of a specific approach toward Serbia through the symbolic soft power of the historical moment of the Serbian flag at the White House in 1918. This time, more emphasis was placed on regional cooperation, while support for Serbia’s path toward European integration became a constant element. A particularly important segment of Trump’s message was the signal toward mutual recognition in the case of the Kosovo and Metohija issue, seen as the fastest path toward achieving European integration goals and the country’s economic perspective. However, developments and circumstances during 2019 significantly influenced a shift in this official stance, which would not be mentioned in all subsequent messages.
Diplomatic efforts and bilateral relations established with Mike Pompeo and Matthew Palmer, aimed to emphasize economic relations in the normalization process between Belgrade and Pristina, with particular focus on tariffs imposed by Pristina as a barrier to further negotiations.
A particularly important event in these relations was the appointment of Richard Grenell as Special Presidential Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Peace Negotiations by Donald Trump on October 4, 2019. Grenell emphasized the economic dimension of relations between Belgrade and Pristina as the most effective way of normalization.
During this year, significant elements of economic cooperation were recorded in the bilateral context between Serbia and the United States: The opening of the NCR campus in Belgrade was announced (realized in 2021), with total investment exceeding $100 million, while the broader value of such American investments for the domestic economy is far greater. Coca-Cola HBC Serbia and Montenegro acquired the company Bambi for more than €260 million and continued its successful operations.
Startup Genome, at the initiative of Digital Serbia, included the Belgrade–Novi Sad startup ecosystem in its annual report, giving it the highest rating (10) for growth in investment in domestic startups and a slightly lower rating (9) for growth in the total number of startups.
Epic Games acquired the Novi Sad startup 3Lateral at the end of the year, while existing American companies continued to expand their operations and investments in Serbia.
Trump’s 2020 message reads: “Dear Mr. President,
The American people and I personally extend our warmest congratulations to you and the Serbian people on the occasion of the celebration of Statehood Day, February 15.
The United States and Serbia share a common vision for your country, a vision based on deepening regional cooperation, strengthening democratic institutions, peacefully resolving differences among neighbors, and building a better future for the citizens of Serbia.
The normalization of relations with Kosovo should remain a priority on your path toward European integration. You can continue to rely on the support of the United States in achieving your goal of membership in the European Union, as well as in the efforts to implement the reforms that will be necessary to reach that goal.
I wish you a joyful celebration of Statehood Day and look forward to an even closer partnership between our two countries.”
The message, in a way, justifies the position of the President of Serbia that “a small miracle has been achieved if the United States shifts its position toward Serbia even slightly,” precisely through the fact that the economy became the main point in the relations between Belgrade and Pristina from Washington’s perspective, instead of mutual recognition. Compared to the 2019 message, this time Trump’s message also states its support for Serbia’s European integration outside the direct context of Belgrade–Pristina relations, which nonetheless remains one of the central points through which Serbia’s EU integration is viewed by the Trump administration.
With the signing of the Declaration of Intent for the completion of the construction of the Belgrade–Pristina highway, as well as the Statement of Intent for the establishment of the Belgrade–Pristina railway corridor on February 14, 2020, followed by a meeting between Mike Pompeo and Vučić, in which Pompeo confirmed U.S. support for Serbia regarding EU membership, regional stability, and normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina, the annual discourse of the development of Serbian-American relations was confirmed: EU membership, economy, normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina, and regional stability.
On September 4, 2020, at the White House, in the presence of Donald Trump, the Washington Agreement was signed, aiming at the normalization of relations between Belgrade and Pristina through economic cooperation.
On September 22, 2020, Prime Minister Brnabić and Executive Director of the International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) Adam Boehler signed a Joint Statement formalizing the opening of a regional office of that corporation in Belgrade.
On that occasion, Vučić referred to the historical importance of the signed agreement, emphasizing the respect shown by Donald Trump in understanding the Serbian position.
In a year marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States provided support to Serbia in the amount of 9.1 million dollars.
The year 2020 was also marked by an active campaign by the U.S. Embassy in Serbia titled “You Are the World,” recognizing prominent figures of Serbian science and academia.
Following the change of administration in the subsequent U.S. presidential elections, the next Trump message was received only in 2025, which reads: “Dear President Vučić,
On behalf of the people of the United States, I send our best wishes to you and the people of Serbia as you celebrate Statehood Day.
I look forward to enhancing our partnership, as we build on the growing ties between our two nations and bring greater security and prosperity to the people of Serbia and the United States. I am pleased by our increased coordination and the resulting new bilateral investment opportunities in important sectors like technology and energy.
Serbia’s significant contributions to international security, whether through support for the people of Ukraine as they defend themselves against Russia’s aggression, or Serbia’s contributions to multiple peacekeeping missions worldwide, are greatly appreciated.
In the year ahead, I look forward to our work together to increase stability and economic development in the Western Balkans. The United States fully supports Serbia’s continuing integration with the Euro-Atlantic space and efforts to promote peaceful and prosperous relations with your neighbors and partners in the region.”
The 2025 message indicates significant changes compared to Trump’s first presidential term. This time, emphasis is placed on integration into the Euro-Atlantic space. On the other hand, highlighting Serbia’s support for Ukraine represents a direct signal that alignment and stronger partnership with the United States will lead to a substantial improvement in relations.
The Government of the Republic of Serbia has recognized this, and I believe that the idea of launching a Strategic Dialogue with the United States is one of the results of that assessment. However, after discussions by Foreign Minister Marko Đurić in Washington and President Vučić in New York with Marco Rubio regarding the initiation of a Strategic Dialogue, it became evident that the path toward its signing would be longer than initially expected.
Despite the growth of the IT sector in Serbia and increased exchange with the United States, energy will become the key area of alignment with the United States, as well as with Serbia’s foreign policy goals, particularly regarding NIS, where any strengthening of Serbia’s position leads to a more efficient outcome. Serbia’s energy landscape and its greater sovereignty will become an important precondition for establishing a Strategic Dialogue with the United States.
In 2026, President Trump extended Statehood Day greetings to Serbia with the following words: “On behalf of the people of the United States, I extend my sincere congratulations to you and the people of Serbia on the occasion of Statehood Day, celebrated on February 15. During nearly 250 years of American freedom, Serbia has been a good friend to us. In fact, Serbia was the first foreign country whose flag flew in a place of honor above the White House. The United States is committed to further strengthening our strong friendship as we work together to increase trade and investment and enhance the economic prosperity of our citizens.”
In terms of length, it resembles the 2017 message. The form of communication was slightly more specific through references to the Serbian flag at the White House, which also appeared in the 2018 and 2019 messages, as well as through the note of friendship over 250 years.
Taking into account current geopolitical developments, as well as previous messages, what can be concluded is that this year’s message places emphasis on the aspect of soft power.
Diplomatic work and efforts in 2018 and 2019 point to two things: The centennial of the Serbian flag at the White House represents an example of events that captured the American stage. It is possible to achieve progress in strengthening Serbia’s position of interests in improving relations with Washington, as seen through the example of redirecting the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina toward economic normalization instead of mutual recognition.
Lessons from Trump’s first term should remind us that effective and pragmatic soft power, which is traditionally and continuously exercised, must find its place in strategies for improving relations, especially with the current and any future U.S. administration. Emphasis should be placed on historical circumstances and the actions of great figures from the past in the history of our relations, on traditional platforms in both countries and at appropriate moments.
An example of this is certainly the commemoration of the Halyard Mission in Serbia, as well as the address of then Prime Minister Ana Brnabić in the U.S. Congress, which is a format that can always be elevated to a higher level of recognition.
When emphasized as a driving force for improving part of the relationship, the economy has produced tangible outcomes and opened the door to effective regional stability through economic cooperation.
The Government faces the task of developing specific strategies for improving relations with the United States, as well as further negotiations on EU membership, which must be maximally compatible, yet sufficiently separate for effective implementation, without taking sides in increasingly tense relations among traditional allies.
In the case of the strategy toward the United States, it will need to be more efficient, with more tangible results than before.
At the end of the analysis, I would turn to Greece, whose Independence Day is traditionally celebrated at the highest level in Washington. U.S. Presidents show great respect to the Greek people and nurture the democratic closeness of Greek theory and the foundations of democracy through which Greece shaped the development and modern aspects of Western civilization, alongside unique American historical democratic efforts that encouraged the contemporary era. Ceremonies at the White House marking Greek Independence Day represent an example of the peak of effective pragmatic soft power by our traditional and historical friends and partners on the continent and represents a model of maximum achievable results that the Serbian side should analyze and strive toward as much as possible.
As Greece becomes an increasingly important partner of the United States through its strategic position in the Eastern Mediterranean, Serbia should look ahead and, with the support of Greece, strive for effective improvement of relations with the United States and higher positioning in accordance with the interests of the Republic of Serbia.
As I previously wrote about the importance of the announced visit of Trump to Greece, it is not surprising that members of the Government of the Republic of Serbia, led by Prime Minister Đuro Macut, attended the Statehood Day reception on February 16, 2026, in Athens, and that the Prime Minister had the opportunity to meet with the U.S. Ambassador to Greece, Kimberly Guilfoyle, with whom he discussed the energy connectivity of the region and Europe. As a reminder, the Ambassador stated that President Trump would visit Greece.
Author:
Novak Đurić
