Current GDP growth projections for the Republic of Serbia, as estimated by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, range between 2.8% and 3% compared to 2024. On 25 July, the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia reported that the average net salary in Serbia amounted to approximately EUR 856. At the same time, the value of the consumer basket for a three-member household in Serbia in April 2025 stood at EUR 881. The Ministry of Internal and External Trade of Serbia has pointed to a steady increase in the cost of the consumer basket in recent years.
However, experts caution that real income — measured by the most common wage rather than the average — reflects the gap between a large number of citizens with low incomes and a much smaller group with exceptionally high earnings. This disparity results in a real wage level of approximately EUR 663.
According to data published by the Statistical Office for 2024, 19.7% of Serbia’s population is at risk of poverty, with 21.1% of those affected being individuals under the age of 17. Serbia is witnessing the culmination of a development model that has for years relied heavily on foreign direct investment, combined with the fact that nearly one quarter of all employed persons work in the public sector, where local administration remains the least represented.
These indicators confirm Serbia’s position within the so-called “middle-income trap”. For several reasons, the Republic of Serbia must actively work toward a model that enhances its overall economic potential.
As a country of the Western Balkans, Serbia currently lags behind Montenegro and Albania, both in terms of prospects for European Union membership and in the number of concrete measures and reforms undertaken. The Western Balkans as a whole, viewed as a single market of more than 15 million people, possesses strong potential for deeper EU integration. Nevertheless, it is evident that countries in the region are not advancing at the same pace.
EU Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos has stated that Montenegro could be admitted to the EU without major additional reforms, while emphasizing that this should not be interpreted as a shortcut — since, as she noted, shortcuts do not exist. Alongside Albania, Montenegro has achieved full alignment with the EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy, whereas Serbia’s alignment has declined over the past decade to just under 50%.
The middle-income trap does not allow Serbia to pursue shortcuts of any kind. Instead, it requires a systematic and stable reorientation of economic thinking, free from populist narratives that could only slow the process. This transition should not span an entire generation, but rather enable every working-age individual to progress, so that future generations may fully benefit from an improved economic landscape.
Croatia, within the first ten years of its EU membership, achieved more tangible results in entrepreneurship than many other member states. According to 2023 data, 1.7 times more people in Croatia are engaged in early-stage entrepreneurial activity than the EU average, with particularly strong participation among young people and women.
The European Union has directly supported — and continues to support — the banking sectors of Romania, Bulgaria, and Slovenia, encouraging them to allocate a portion of their activities toward financing small and medium-sized enterprises.
In an era of globalization and global uncertainty, actors lacking adequate mechanisms for planning economic growth — mechanisms that should also ensure rising living standards — often find themselves facing opportunities they cannot access. They see the wall behind which those opportunities lie, but lack the ladders to climb over it.
The Republic of Serbia must build those ladders itself. They may well lie in strengthening domestic entrepreneurship, specifically through the development of entrepreneurial economic policy and entrepreneurial culture.
Thousands of companies in Croatia, Romania, Slovenia, and Bulgaria benefit from EU funding. Through networking policies, these EU member states — geographically close to Serbia — have a unique opportunity to position their entrepreneurs effectively within the EU market. They achieve this by simultaneously defining a clear entrepreneurial economic model and fostering entrepreneurial culture. Albania and Montenegro are increasingly aligning with this group.
Although Serbia is not an EU member state, it must pursue both objectives with equal determination. Serbia’s participation as an associated country in the Digital Europe Programme, as well as the EU Growth Plan for the Western Balkans, demonstrates that the country is not entirely excluded from EU funding or direct support. Nonetheless, access remains significantly more favorable for EU member states.
I firmly believe that the American model of entrepreneurship, innovation, and start-up thinking is one that Serbia should closely study, follow, and analyze in order to:
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enable a dual economic transition from middle-income stagnation to stable middle-income development, and subsequently to a higher-income economy;
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build entrepreneurial capacity capable of competing with neighboring countries that are EU members or aspire to become so;
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develop economic resilience modeled on the United States, thereby strengthening Serbia’s position both in EU accession negotiations and in adapting to the shock effects of the EU single market upon accession.
The United States, as the world’s largest economy, leverages its global influence and dominance of the financial system — with approximately 60% of global capital flows conducted in U.S. dollars — in a way that fosters a highly developed entrepreneurial ecosystem. Institutions and symbols such as Wall Street, the S&P 500 index, Silicon Valley, and many others clearly illustrate this reality. In doing so, the United States has successfully fulfilled the two essential prerequisites of entrepreneurial success: an entrepreneurial economy and an entrepreneurial culture.
Through institutions such as the Small Business Administration, the United States directly supports early-stage entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurship-focused educational programs led by top institutions such as Harvard and MIT further signal the importance of entrepreneurial education across the entire educational system — a foundation of immense value for the long-term development of entrepreneurial policy and culture.
Relatively low corporate taxes, the promotion and investment of domestic capital, the development of a successful speculative investment fund sector, and the promotion of the American Dream through modern digital culture — where individual ambition, financial freedom, stability, and a clear understanding of rights and responsibilities coexist — represent key parameters of American entrepreneurship from which Serbia can draw inspiration. At this moment, such inspiration may be more necessary than ever.
The words of Warren Buffett, perhaps the greatest investor of all time, who advises betting on American business because it ultimately always prevails, deserve careful consideration.
According to the latest assessments of global “smart money” movements, the United States remains the primary destination. As a global leader in artificial intelligence — the fastest-evolving industry in the world — the United States demonstrates its ability not only to follow but to shape emerging trends. This is precisely why the world’s most powerful economy has developed the most advanced entrepreneurial model.
In the early stages of building a stable middle-income economy, Serbia must above all follow global trends. Over the past twelve years, the number of entrepreneurs in Serbia has increased by approximately 50%, while research indicates that younger generations are increasingly inclined toward entrepreneurship. These same studies, however, also point to a lack of systemic support.
Following the American model requires parallel progress across two dimensions of entrepreneurship. In terms of cultural foundations, the most effective approach involves strong engagement from local and national educational institutions. These institutions can be oriented toward attracting and retaining domestic talent, supported by taxpayers and the state, with the aim of building a domestic entrepreneurial society. This process generates entrepreneurial signals that must find space within education and media, fostering both awareness and motivation.
Gradually, this would cultivate a mindset reminiscent of President Kennedy’s famous words: “Ask not what your country can do for you — ask what you can do for your country.” In the United States, entrepreneurship thus acquires a patriotic dimension — one that Serbia also urgently needs. Experience exchange and cooperation opportunities naturally follow, involving domestic experts as well as international specialists, analysts, and successful entrepreneurs. Through this process, Serbia would significantly strengthen the link between entrepreneurial culture and a more robust entrepreneurial economy.
In building a stronger and more future-oriented entrepreneurial economy, Serbia must increase financial incentives and subsidies, particularly through decentralization and gradual disengagement from over-reliance on Belgrade (and Novi Sad). Local communities across Serbia possess substantial untapped potential — such as spa resources, half of which remain underutilized — as well as potential yet to be created. Networking with entrepreneurial culture is crucial for success at this stage.
It is also essential to build a network of transparent entrepreneurship, ensuring that the integration of entrepreneurial culture with a stronger entrepreneurial economy generates broad motivational incentives, ultimately leading to clear and progressive taxation.
By gradually implementing these steps nationwide, Serbia would move closer to a stable middle-income economy and open space for young domestic investment capital, including the development of a currently almost non-existent speculative investment fund sector. This trajectory would maximize the benefits of foreign investment, which — when combined with domestic capital — enhances the value of Serbian government bonds.
With appropriate diplomatic positioning, particularly in the United States, Serbia’s international image within its regional and continental context would significantly improve. The current 30% increase in trade between Serbia and the United States from January to May 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 is a positive signal, but it must be integrated into a broader domestic entrepreneurial strategy to achieve sustained, strategic growth.
Within such a model — both theoretically and practically feasible — Serbia could also address the inefficiencies of large state-owned enterprises that possess valuable equipment and skilled labor. One example is SIMPO, which has been in continuous decline across multiple business segments for thirteen years. Integrating these resources into an entrepreneurial framework could offer a viable solution.
In developing such an entrepreneurial policy, Serbia must consider the corporate legacy of the former Yugoslavia, which lacks efficient entrepreneurial frameworks, as well as the country’s underutilized agricultural potential. Agriculture and livestock production, through an entrepreneurial lens, could receive the strategic attention they deserve — with the United States, often overlooked as an agricultural powerhouse, serving as a relevant sub-model.
Serbia may indeed find a globally competitive sector within agriculture. However, domestic entrepreneurial policy must not focus exclusively on a single product or industry, as this would obscure the broader potential of entrepreneurship itself.
In conclusion, it must be acknowledged that the American entrepreneurial model is not without its shortcomings — such as the widely debated 401(k) pension system, criticized by analysts including Robert Kiyosaki. Nevertheless, as a small country, Serbia has the opportunity to develop more tailored and elegant solutions to meet its own needs.
In this context, I believe that Serbia’s untapped entrepreneurial potential represents a genuine opportunity for a transformative shift in its economic outlook, living standards, international image, and diplomacy. The choice remains ours: whether we continue to stare at the wall and allow it to grow — or finally take the ladders into our own hands.
Perhaps the strength of this thesis is such that the wall will not merely be overcome — but dismantled entirely.
Author:
Novak Đurić
References and further reading:
Savremena Spoljna Politika Srbije – Dragan Đukanović, Milan Krstić i Marko Dašić; Tok Gotovog Novca, Vodič za Investiranje – Robert Kiosaki; Mit o preduzetništvu – Majkl E. Gerber; Generacija Z i u Srbiji sklonija pokretanju preduzetništva, ali im manjka sistemske podrške; Why the US Leads the World in Entrepreneurship and Innovation; Seeds of growth; Inclusive Entrepreneurship Policy; Romania: 5,000 businesses to receive financial support thanks to Cohesion Policy programme; Marta Kos: „Crna Gora je kao trećina Beča, možemo je primiti bez velikih reformi EU“; U Srbiji više od četvrtine zaposlenih radi u javnom sektoru: Ovo su oblasti gde se zapošljava najviše ljudi; Siromaštvo u Srbiji: Skoro svaka peta osoba u riziku od siromaštva; Prosečna plata u Srbiji iz dva ugla – statistike i građana; U zamci srednje razvijenosti: Zašto Srbija i dalje tapka u mestu?
