The greater Serbian region had a Golden Age some 120 years ago at the end of the 19th century. The Balkans sat at the crossroads of east and west, controlling trade and wealth creation across the European continent. It played an important role in the political movements of the 19th & 20th centuries. Great innovators such as Nikola Tesla and Milutin Milankovic led scientific thought. Unfortunately, the Serbian region was immersed in wars during the 20th century. The failure of communism and the rise of central planning bureaucrats separated the dynamism of capitalistic growth to its west. This led to poor economic performance, and it fell far behind in the betterment of the human condition for its societies.
Where does its future lie? The future is far brighter than its recent past. Why?
For historical perspective, a comparison of Germany and Poland since the year 2000 is instructive. In just over a 20-year period, German GDP doubled, but Poland’s grew 4x. Germany had a GDP per capita of $23,600 in 2000, and $53,800 in 2022 (2.2x growth). The Poles’ GDP per capita of $4,000 in 2000 rose to $18,700 in 2022 (nearly a 5x increase). German GDP was 11x larger than Poland in 2000, but today is only 6x larger despite over twice the population. And it all wasn’t due to EU membership, but wise domestic economic policies including creating energy independence using multiple sources. It is now positioned well to compete with Germany (and the rest of the EU) as a lower cost manufacturing and service hub. Why not such growth for the Balkans in the next 20 years?
The New Perspective: Today Serbia/Belgrade and the Balkans again sit at a political and economic crossroads of east and west. With political tensions rising to the east and western European economies beginning to moderate, a New Beginning is at hand. There is no reason why the combined economic opportunity of Balkan nations cannot grow at a comparative rate to Poland of the last 20 years. Putting aside some ancient rivalries and expanding recent cooperation of economic goals creates a winning platform for the future.
New Beginnings: Economic cooperation and the creation of a strong rule of law and enforcement across the region can create the optimum conditions for growth. Relatively low labour rates, a combined population of nearly 50 million for the region and a strong educational legacy in the sciences are the components of New Beginnings. Energy is a key to wealth creation and increases in life expectancy/quality throughout the world as well as for Serbia and the Balkans. Energy policy that optimizes value but provides security brings the stability required for sustained growth. Serbia and the Balkans are superbly positioned to be the next great growth story on this globe. Who is ready to participate?
